This paper makes analyses of the realism in global migration crisis. On this case, most of the view were stated in political views of the Central Asian region to global tendencies and issues overcome migration. Conclusions of the author shows analyses of contemporary conditions in the region while making suggestions to the future points.
The migration crisis has become a stress test for Europe. Migration got into the millstones and boiling cauldrons of misunderstanding in the European Union. A rare number of print media, whether it be a newspaper or a magazine, Euro - News or Russian television channels, is now published without articles and stories about migration. There is reason to believe that everyone who falls into migration chaos falls into the millstones, and each one has a thought of Damocles' sword in his head and soul. Migration processes characterize any society and in any era . Currently, these processes are in the center of attention of experts and scientists. The idea that in a country there are crowds of people who sleep and see how to be in Russia, live and work there, or even seize its land - is completely false, from the realm of myths, Russian experts say. In a difficult demographic situation, except for Russia, practically all countries of Western Europe find themselves. But no one knows how many refugees and migrants are in the EU countries. The conflict in Syria continues to be the largest source of migration. After the Turkish attack on the Kurds (October 2019), a new round of migration begins. But the ongoing violence in Afghanistan and Iraq, the abuse in other countries encourages people to look for new places to live. The border services of the European Union, which monitor which routes are used by migrants, indicate the number of more than 1,800,000 refugees who crossed the border in 2015 alone. For example, under German law, persons who have received a permanent residence permit in Germany in accordance with article 16 of the German constitution (political asylum) or temporary - for three years - under the Geneva Convention "On Refugees", have the right to family reunion. How many of them will take advantage of this right? Until the middle of the century, the European Community plans to attract approximately one million immigrants per year. Also, a million each year they plan to attract the United States.
This means that the market for immigrant labor, especially skilled educated labor, will be extremely competitive. The EU suggests up to 2050. attract 40 million migrants (approximately 800 thousand people per year). Moreover, many Western European scholars believe that at least 1.5 times more immigrants will be required. In the United States, a much more ambitious plan. They focus on ensuring population growth of about 100 million people until the middle of the century. At the same time, they plan to attract a million or more emigrants annually.
All of Europe discusses the Bulgarian scandal during a football match (November 2019). And the fact that they do not show respect, insult and humiliate against migrants, everyone is silent. But, Thank God that there is the Internet and ordinary migrants, human rights activists post very interesting moments of the meeting, especially with the police. Russia is famous for kind people. Some stories look vile. But it is wrong to judge Russia and Russians by the trick of these nonhumans. And the press is pouring dirt on our whole country, on all of ours. I do not like it. It is necessary to rise from the bottom now - then it will be too late. Tajiks have always been distinguished by their correctness and respect for everyone. We have been taught this and we are now teaching it. Somewhere in the subconscious, I hope for an adequate media response in relation to our migrants, and not only that. Lawmakers, law enforcement agencies and officials of all stripes should think and prevent this. What can lead to such a prediction is not difficult. The most important thing is not to be late. It is necessary to punish these people. I would call them mentally retarded. Fermentation has long since begun in the migratory environment, there are more discontented people than satisfied ones. And what a monstrous attitude towards migrants can be observed at Moscow airports !? Someone should work with border guards, airport services, and customs officers. Why are they so barbaric? For example, here is recent information on how at the Zhukovsky airport they mocked the journalist BBC, a native of Tajikistan. Who should be punished for such an attitude? If this happened in Europe, then the airport management would have fallen. And there they did not even deign to answer.
The worst thing is when the local population is subject to migrant-phobic sentiments, mainly due to media propaganda. The other day I read a note entitled "Semak's wife explained the decision to adopt a black child." I thought this was a note about our migrants. Well, there are magnanimous people in Russia with planetary thinking. I am enclosing an abridged version of the note . Migration for the global economy is one way to increase the economic level of host countries. Migration is the engine of the economy. It's time to understand a simple thing. We live in a global world. Maybe in 20-30 years there will be no borders, maybe during this period the great powers will fall apart like cardboard houses, as happened with the USSR, maybe the Unified Government will really appear and that the world is changing, this is definitely no alternative.
Now migration is stagnant. Numerous Laws, Concepts, patents, quotas did not give anything definite. Migrants and officials show neither quality nor motivation on the migration field. We all need to think carefully about what is happening and draw the right conclusions. And the Goskomstat of Russia, as an official body, both domestic and foreign demographers, as well as UN demographers, are all unanimous in the opinion that Russia's population will decline very quickly until 2050. Even those who can be called "optimists," "romantics," or "dreamers," who believe that we can achieve a turning point in fertility trends, even they admit that we will be in a very difficult situation until 2050 . The calculations of our Center show that in order to prevent a reduction in the population of Russia, it takes about 1 million. immigrants on average per year . In 2018, the migration growth of the population of Russia decreased by 41%, and the turnover of international migration increased by 4%. In 2013, the number of emigrants from Russia increased by another 52%, in 2014 - by 66%, in 2015 - by 14%. The increase in the number of departures from Russia in 2014-2015 was to some extent due to the deterioration of the economic situation in Russia. In 2016, the number of people who left Russia amounted to 311 thousand people against 353 in 2015, excluding Crimea (-11.8%). However, the very next year, the number of people leaving Russia again increased significantly (by 20%), amounting to 373 thousand people excluding Crimea and 441 thousand people including Crimea in 2017. This is the highest number of recorded departures from Russia after VPN 2010 . How are the EU and other countries going to get out of the crisis? Political scientist Petra Bendel from the University of Erlangen-Nuremberg considers the situation with refugees at the European Union level to be disastrous. First of all, she points out the lack of common standards in the migration system and significant differences in migration legislation. But, according to experts, in particular, the former Governor of the Bank of England Mervyn King said that the world is facing a new economic and financial crisis that will have devastating consequences for a democratic market system. It is reported by The Guardian. At the same time, he added that the United States will seriously suffer from the possible so-called “financial armageddon”. But, he forgot about something else. Any crisis, first of all, affects labor migrants. So we need to prepare. I think the migration pyramid should not be built from above, but from below. That is, work until the migrant leaves the republic. Failures of migrants - the tip of the iceberg. The root of the problems is much deeper. To this goal we must go step by step .
Today, the lack of coordinated action by the EU is pushing individual countries to independently resolve the issue, rather than interethnic. This makes the closure of borders, the erection of wire fences, as well as the conduct of maritime operations the norm, not an exception. Such measures not only do not contribute to solving the migration crisis, but also violate the ideals on which the EU was built . And then two reactions arose. First: “How dare he!” Second: “What is it?” And the truth, as usual, is somewhere between these positions. On the one hand, in a situation where each deliberately or accidentally dropped word on the topic of migration can provoke an explosion, one must be more careful in the statements. Excessive euphoria has never benefited labor migrants. But, migrant and migration is not a place for demonstration of various political slogans and actions. Unfortunately, neither in the EU, nor in the USA, nor in other host countries, as long as there, apparently, they really understand what scale the reaction and concrete attitude to migration problems should be. There are a lot of tools. But the EU and K do not know which side to approach the topic. And the line between the "silence" and the aggressive aggressive actions of radically-minded residents is very thin. There are too many overlays on migration issues, the degree of aggression, and the competitive principle. Today, the issue of migration is on the agenda of all negotiation processes. This we did not observe at all. D. Trump's position regarding illegal migrants has changed the philosophy of migration policy in the world . At the end of 2018, leaders from 167 countries gathered in Marrakesh. The signed Global Compact on Migration was the first agreement reached as a result of intergovernmental negotiations and concluded under the auspices of the UN, which covered all aspects of international migration and is comprehensive and comprehensive. President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin signed (October 31, 2018) the Decree “On the Concept of the State Migration Policy of the Russian Federation for 2019–2025”. During a meeting with his Russian counterpart, the Minister of Internal Affairs of the Republic of Tatarstan raised amnesty issues for Tajik labor migrants during a visit by State Duma Speaker Volodin V.V. (10.19.19), the topic of migration was discussed with the President of the Republic of Tajikistan Emomal Rahmon and the Speaker of the Majlisi Namoyandagon of the Republic of Tajikistan. Political ties on migration are on the rise. An intensive political dialogue is ongoing, including on global and regional security in the context of migration. Inter-parliamentary ties are expanding. In this regard, I would like to rephrase the principle proposed by Africans: “African problems - African solutions” and we say “Migration problems - migration solutions”. In the near future, the modern world will be different in that the highest competition for labor resources will begin. What methods do countries in need of migrants intend to use?
Migration is increasingly becoming an urgent need and great opportunity. The migration problem is crucial for Russia. For example, Central Asia has enormous resources and potential economic attractiveness. At the same time, has manpower. And this is not infinite. Its infrastructure needs are growing, the population is rapidly growing, the demands of which are also increasing. Consequently, the domestic market and consumption are expanding. However, we observe that host countries resort to pressure, intimidation and blackmail. The most interesting thing is that migrant labor brings incredible benefits to the country's economy. On the other hand, an increase in the amount of patents, the tough attitude of law enforcement agencies, are trying to scare off migrants. Employers pump out superprofits, exploit people without looking back, while not paying taxes . What do we observe in Russia? The population of working age is declining. This does not go synchronously. The total population may decline, while the working-age population may increase. Until now, there has never been a natural reduction in the working-age population in Russia. This increase has never gone negative. This is now being observed for the first time. Not only now, but, according to forecasts, up to the middle of the century. This happens because the demographic waves that travel across the entire population and the working-age population do not coincide. Indeed, the population of working age depends on how many young people are of working age and how many older people are retiring. Of course, we must take these realities into account and draw the appropriate conclusions. The problem of migration is perceived by the population ambiguously. “Many say that increasing fertility is a priority. I am opposed to choosing which is more important: money for a migration policy or money to help mothers with children. Both one and the other are needed ”. Migration is always a reflex process that reflects the economy. By the way, Moscow is growing, by no means, faster than before. Since the 1920s, Moscow has been adding an average of 100 thousand inhabitants a year. In this regard, almost the entire population of Moscow are migrants. In the future, migration will become of crucial importance for Russia. The rate of its economic growth, the standard of living of the population, social climate, regional proportions of development, the size of the country and its integrity depend on how well the country copes with the task of attracting the necessary number of immigrants. The main thing is that it should be civilized, develop in the legal framework. We prefer that rivalry in the labor market in the near future be replaced by cooperation. Tajikistan is ready for just such a job. It is necessary to expand and enrich the palette of tools for promoting labor migration. The practice of preparing migrants prior to departure, including on a preferential and free basis, is in demand. And the number of people who want to join them is growing. And now our migrants are like fish thrown onto the ice: they seem to jerk, try to break out of the nets, but everything is somehow pointless, convulsive. Isn't that the time to wait? How do law enforcement treat migrant workers? Just goes to the Internet and asks for material on this topic, you can get a whole blockbuster. In Europe, this is completely unacceptable. Such an ironic xenophobia. Like, we are joking. But in a critical situation, it turns out that this is not a joke at all. This is a big problem of the culture itself. Can it be allowed? Yes, perhaps in the horizon of negotiations and agreements. It is possible as a result of understanding, a big geomigration explosion. It is much better to be integrated into the big and the whole .
The legacy of the Soviet Union is talking at a lower, everyday level. Confronting such a power of anti-emigrant hysteria is not just difficult, but almost impossible. Therefore, we must endure and wait in the wings. Even presumptive conclusions tell us that many states have not only the results of the problem, but also the staff. The history of migration is an important step for our history. Our migrants are writing their story right now. But we cannot succeed simply by talking about it. We must act, develop new mechanisms for working with migrants, and collect interesting and creative experience into grains. Migration problems can be solved from the perspective of chess - from the perspective of understanding migration issues in the future. We are getting closer to the goal. Now all states and governments are in such a position that they are expected to do concrete actions, actions at any level and at any time. Concrete actions of the government will give confidence to migrants, will restore their mood and positive. Sometimes they do not believe in themselves enough. When uncertainty arises, you do not act instinctively, but think for too long. And the poor migrant has been sitting on a hot chair for a year now. Colossal pressure is exerted on him. The perception of migrantophobes and the press is spoiled. Thus, immigration is a harsh necessity, an indispensable condition for our development until the end of the 21st century.The legacy of the Soviet Union is talking at a lower, everyday level. Confronting such a power of anti-emigrant hysteria is not just difficult, but almost impossible. Therefore, we must endure and wait in the wings. Even presumptive conclusions tell us that many states have not only the results of the problem, but also the staff. The history of migration is an important step for our history. Our migrants are writing their story right now. But we cannot succeed simply by talking about it. We must act, develop new mechanisms for working with migrants, and collect interesting and creative experience into grains. Migration problems can be solved from the perspective of chess - from the perspective of understanding migration issues in the future. We are getting closer to the goal. Now all states and governments are in such a position that they are expected to do concrete actions, actions at any level and at any time. Concrete actions of the government will give confidence to migrants, will restore their mood and positive. Sometimes they do not believe in themselves enough. When uncertainty arises, you do not act instinctively, but think for too long. And the poor migrant has been sitting on a hot chair for a year now. Colossal pressure is exerted on him. The perception of migrantophobes and the press is spoiled. Thus, immigration is a harsh necessity, an indispensable condition for our development until the end of the 21st century.
Central Asia has long become a headliner  not only for talk shows, propaganda news, humorous channels in the Russian Federation, but also to a large extent a source of reflection and even inspiration for the average person in the Russian Federation. However, by 2019, the peak of the influence of hysterical propaganda on ordinary Russians that all migrants occupy our places, we do not need them, and so on. Now in this mode, ordinary citizens of Russia do not perceive a migrant. It seems to me that there is such a mood in the mass consciousness: of course, no one knows how, but everyone would like the negative attitude towards migrants to just go somewhere. There are human rights defenders who help injured migrants at the hands of law enforcement agencies 24 hours a day. This suggests that Russian society is not completely sick and hopeless. But to expect improvement in the near future in the broad sense is completely impossible. Now not only the political elite, but also the broadest sections of the population have been involved in pondering these issues. In fact, this is already a good result, because people begin to see the problem deeper. Many officials who look at the world of migration through pink glasses hope that Russia will manage without migration. Various political people outwitted and used migration for personal gain. They learned to build smart, competent, beautiful, stylish and informative people from themselves. But public opinion did not have time to adapt to their tricks. "To what? To what?" The approach is put in the center of the whole person, and not pour water and specifically talk about goals.
Migration officials should work as efficiently and effectively as possible. This is a key task. Migrant life - turn into a service. And they are very interconnected. We must be able to simplify, remove unnecessary and make migration processes effective. For example, create volunteer contact centers for migrants. During the campaign, the team of V. Zelensky tightly used deep targeting. We talked with different audiences about what specifically interests this target audience. They told students what we do for students, pensioners what we do for pensioners. This is called deep targeting. Target as deeply as possible so that communication is targeted. To achieve a goal, it is impossible to transform anything unless you set the right goals and change the organizational structure. And now the republic is in dire need of the Ministry of Migration in order to shape its migration policy. The Ministry of Migration (God grant that such a ministry appears) must work on digital transformation. The average portrait of the Ministry of Migration is people who have achieved a certain result in their fields, who can work with limited resources. They should be familiar with the reality of migrant life. Therefore, we need to talk about the basic preparedness of officials to work with migrants. New cadres today have to pay brutally for terry voluntarism in approaching the migration problem and for unjustified experiments in this process. The only motivation officials may have is professional or personal self-realization.
If it’s simple, then I want the ministry or agency, as we call it, to be irrelevant, to be a simple service, as convenient and invisible to a migrant as possible. So that when you interact with the state, you feel comfortable, just like you order Uber, book a room on Booking or Airbnb. That the service for the migrant was just a simple tool, and he did not feel at the same time any destructive emotions and thoughts. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to invite our graduates from leading universities in the world. We must send our specialists to Estonia and Lithuania for internships. It is in these republics that digital government is very developed. It is necessary to conduct an electronic census of all migrants. Based on these data, develop a strategy for the future. Next: Do you need to create, without delaying the Unified portal of electronic appeals of citizens? So that people do not write paper letters, but send a legally significant electronic request via the Internet. Let our migrants write to us about their problems, they are our citizens and we must take care of them, wherever they are. And I want it to be a maximally human and living language, and not a bureaucratic one. It is impossible to put a person in the center if you do not communicate with him and receive feedback from him. It is necessary to take measures:
1. To give migrants the right to seek employment even go to the labor exchange. Therefore, migrants need to improve their legal literacy, study migration laws, so that in the end they do not end up in the situation of powerless slaves who were not paid for their labor. Help deceived migrants return their money in the absence of an employment contract.
2. In migration policy, special attention should be paid to issues related to the settlement of interethnic conflicts, the search for a “common language” between migrants and the indigenous population. No one is able to cope with this task better than the media, nothing is able to influence the mass consciousness as much as the media. It is sad, but recently the media are used not for humane purposes, but rather, as a means of inciting conflicts in society, including ethnic ones. It is not entirely clear why the media touch upon migration issues only when there is an incident related to major ethnic conflicts or the next detention of illegal migrants.
3. The relationship of Tajiks and other peoples of Central Asia with Russia with a long-long history of 19-20 centuries. Now we do not look so far, although it would be necessary.
4. As soon as the resonance around the scandalous migration problems subsides, the media believe that once the conflict has been settled, then there are no problems. The conflict, which has been publicized throughout the country, resembles a cry of the soul. Every person has an opinion, everyone has a right to it, everyone has the right to express this opinion, but nobody has the right to use obscene language, insult another or others - especially based on nationality. And during the election race, literally in all countries “there is a calculation that someone who skillfully plays the migration card will achieve victory”. Universities profess that politics is, of course, a dirty business, but, it seems to me, there should be a limit to dirt. When migrantophobia comes about migrants from all channels, I’m interested in the reaction of the authorities to it. Everyone at home in the kitchen, everyone can say whatever he wants, but doing it on television, in the media, from the theater stands, in humorous programs is categorically unacceptable. Somewhere I read, "To be confused is difficult, to be lost is even more difficult." Historical note: But there were sovereigns in the history of Russia Emperors, who in a completely similar case (when a drunk soldier in a tavern shouted that “he wanted to spit on your emperor,” and was arrested and put to trial in a military court) imposed his own resolution: “The case stop, release Oreshkin. From now on do not hang up my portraits in taverns. Tell Oreshkin that I also did not care
5. More attention needs to be paid to migration issues. The media completely lacks materials about those migrants who work honestly, bringing considerable benefits to the country and the region. The media should note not only the negativity that individual migrants bring, but also everything favorable that is associated with their influx is often not even noticed. Our media lacks precisely the positive characteristics of migrants. A favorable result in solving migration problems will be achieved if the migration services work closely with the media. It is very important that their cooperation excludes competition. The media should stop the pursuit of scandals and sensations, as this often undermines the policies pursued by the migration service and the government.
6. Before departure, it is necessary to conduct training for migrants with the participation of Russian and other companies. That is, you need to teach immigrants on the spot. It is necessary to revive the vocational school system in full support: provide a hostel, feed, dress and learn for free, including the Russian language. To restore the Tajik experience of sending to study at vocational schools in Russia.
7. Work with migration for Tajikistan is not only a matter of honor, but also a necessity for the republic, it is the image and security of the country. Our strategy to watch not only tomorrow and next year is the only true one in the circumstances. If we talk only about the “negative”, then this is demotivated.
If you look only at the migration figures in isolation from the context with the neighbors, then it might seem that everything looks perfect like an open spring. But the ideal is still far from us. There is still a lot of work to do. There are many more topics that we need to discuss, study, research, experiment. Officials need to work on themselves and look for negative results that need to be fixed. The reasons to look for in the inefficiency of their work, and not in external factors.
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